Green Hydrogen: India's Long-Dated Decarbonisation Bet
The National Green Hydrogen Mission targets ~5 MMTPA production by 2030, opening a nascent electrolyser and offtake market.
Market Size
est. $2–3 Bn (India, early-stage, FY26E)
Growth
~40%+ CAGR (FY26–30E, off a low base)
Read
8 min
Published
Jun 2026
Overview
The National Green Hydrogen Mission has set an indicative production target of roughly 5 million tonnes per annum (MMTPA) by 2030, backed by SIGHT incentives for electrolyser manufacturing and hydrogen production. Green hydrogen is produced by electrolysing water using renewable power, making it a zero-carbon feedstock for refining, fertiliser and steel. Adoption today is pilot-scale and cost-sensitive.
The core challenge is cost: green hydrogen remains meaningfully more expensive than grey hydrogen, and closing that gap depends on cheaper renewable power, lower electrolyser capex and scale. Early demand is being anchored by refineries and fertiliser plants mandated to blend green hydrogen and ammonia. Green ammonia for export is an emerging opportunity.
This is a long-dated theme with real technology and offtake risk. Capital commitments from large energy and industrial groups are substantial, but bankable, long-term offtake contracts are still forming. Timelines to profitability are likely late-decade.
Illustrative projection from the report's stated market size (est. $2–3 Bn (India, early-stage, FY26E)) and growth (~40%+ CAGR (FY26–30E, off a low base)).
Key Highlights
- Indicative ~5 MMTPA production target by 2030
- SIGHT incentives for electrolysers and production
- Refining, fertiliser and steel as anchor demand
- Green-ammonia export as an early monetisation route
Growth Drivers
- Falling renewable power and electrolyser costs
- Government mandates and production-linked incentives
- Hard-to-abate industrial decarbonisation demand
- Green-ammonia and export offtake potential
Key Players
Investment Outlook
Green hydrogen is a high-optionality, late-payoff theme where patient capital and policy continuity matter more than near-term revenue. We treat it as a small, long-horizon allocation contingent on demonstrated cost declines and firm offtake.
Key Risks
- Cost gap versus grey hydrogen persisting longer than expected
- Slow build-out of firm, bankable offtake contracts
- Electrolyser technology and supply-chain immaturity
The Neoma View
We see green hydrogen as a call option on decarbonisation, not a near-term cash-flow story; exposure should be sized accordingly and tied to credible offtake.
Talk to an advisor →All figures are indicative and for information only - not investment advice or a recommendation. Market sizes, growth rates and financial metrics are hedged estimates that vary by source and period. Please consult your advisor before investing.
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