POST MARKET EDITION · 3:30 PM IST

Monday, JULY 6, 2026

Open 24,106.60 High 24,168.05 Low 24,073.15 Prev 24,013.10

Open 77,502.00 High 77,810.00 Low 77,320.00 Prev 77,502.12

gainers

laggards

Khamenei's Death Changes the Iran Risk Calculus · Why Markets Are Reading It as Positive

The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend - and the transfer of power to his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since taking the title - introduces a new and unexpected dimension to the Iran peace process. Markets are reading the leadership transition as net positive for three reasons: (1) Khamenei senior was the principal architect of the confrontational foreign policy that drove Iran into the conflict. His death removes the most ideologically hardline voice from the negotiations, potentially creating space for the new leadership to reframe the Doha talks as a 'new era' initiative. (2) The period of official mourning (extended 5 days) has naturally paused the military posturing that had created the ceasefire violation risk - Iran's IRGC has been operationally constrained during the mourning period, reducing the probability of another Hormuz incident in the next 7-10 days. (3) Brent crude's reaction says it all:

Khamenei: dead · Mojtaba: new supreme leader, unseen · Brent: fell on news · Watch: first public statement

FIIs Buy Rs 1,355 Crore on July 3 · The Structural Reversal Is Now Confirmed

FII July 3 data released this morning confirmed net buying of Rs 1,355 crore - the first FII net positive session since June 15's peace deal rally and the largest single-day FII buy since May 2026. The reversal pattern that Neoma Capital flagged on July 2 (when FII selling collapsed to Rs 311 crore) has now completed: two consecutive low-sell sessions followed by the first net buy. This is the identical pattern to the October 2023 FII reversal that preceded a 12% Nifty rally over the subsequent 45 sessions. The additional nuance from NiftyTrader's F&O data: FIIs bought Rs 1,355 crore in cash while simultaneously buying 62,499 put contracts and shorting 48,784 call contracts - a hedged long position. This is not a high-conviction directional bet; it is a cautious long entry with downside protection. The implication: FIIs are not yet fully committed to the bull case, but they are clearly no longer short India. As the hedges unwind (put positions close) over the

FII July 3: +Rs 1,355 Cr (first net buy since June 15) · Hedged long · July MTD: +Rs 1,355 Cr

Cipla led all Nifty 50 gainers with a 4.82% surge as institutional buying returned to the pharma sector with conviction. The catalysts were specific: Cipla's US business returned to double-digit growth in Q4 FY26, its peptide-based drug portfolio has received three US FDA approvals in the past six weeks, and the rupee's relative stability reduces the currency headwind on dollar-denominated US revenue. Tech Mahindra gained 2.16%, continuing its recovery from the IT sector's June-July rout. Dr Reddy's rose 1.56% and Sun Pharma added 1.40%. In banking, IDFC First Bank surged 2.38% as its Q1 FY27 business update showed deposit growth accelerating. Bank of Baroda rose 1.71% and PNB gained 0.86%. Nifty IT's 1.80% gain was supported by Fed Chair Warsh's weekend interview in which he acknowledged that inflation data was 'moving in the right direction' - language that markets read as a

IndusInd Bank was the session's biggest Nifty 50 loser, declining 3.02% as fresh concerns emerged about the bank's microfinance portfolio exposure and NPA trajectory. Kotak Mahindra Bank fell 2.51% to Rs 386.80 - its lowest level since the CEO exit announcement - as the absence of any succession clarity continued to weigh. Asian Paints declined 2.20% in the context of earnings caution: the paint sector's competitive dynamics have intensified with Birla Opus capturing share, and the sector's raw material cost benefits from lower crude have been partially offset by pricing pressure. Titan Company fell 1.20% and Nestle India slipped 1.05% as consumer discretionary stocks faced rotation selling into pharma and IT. The session's laggards were overwhelmingly concentrated in sectors that had run strongly in recent weeks (consumer discretionary, FMCG) and the specific bank

Foreign Institutional Investors

+Rs 1,355.00 Cr

Net BUYERS - first since June 15 · Structural reversal confirmed · July MTD: +Rs 1,355 Cr

Domestic Institutional Investors

+Rs 2,240.00 Cr

Net buyers · 25th consecutive session (estimated) · July MTD: ~+Rs 5,399 Cr

Net Institutional Flow

+Rs 3,595.00 Cr

FII + DII both buying simultaneously · First FII+DII alignment since June 25

Mojtaba Khamenei: The Unknown Successor and What His Silence Means for the Peace Process

Mojtaba Khamenei's assumption of the supreme leadership role - and his complete absence from public view since taking the title - is the defining geopolitical uncertainty of the coming week. History offers limited guidance: Iran has had only two supreme leaders in its 47-year history, and both succession events (Khomeini to Khamenei senior in 1989) involved internal IRGC alignment processes that took 2-4 weeks to consolidate. Three scenarios for Mojtaba's positioning: (1) Pragmatic continuity (50% probability): Mojtaba allows the Doha talks framework to continue, uses the peace process as a 'new era' legitimacy anchor, and Iran's economy begins recovering. Brent falls toward $66-68. This is the scenario that today's market is pricing. (2) Paralysis (35% probability): Mojtaba cannot consolidate authority quickly, IRGC factions compete for influence, and the Doha talks stall for 4-6 weeks. Brent stays in the $68-74 range. Markets price a range-bound outlook. (3) Escalation (15% probability): A hardline IRGC faction gains ascendancy and uses the leadership transition to reject the peace process entirely. Brent spikes to $80-85. Nifty tests 23,500-23,700. Watch Mojtaba's first public statement as the single most important signal for which scenario is playing out.

Mojtaba: new leader, unseen · Scenario: 50% pragmatic / 35% paralysis / 15% escalation · Watch: first statement

FII Net Buyers for the First Time Since June 15: The Four Mechanics That Drive What Comes Next

FII's return to net buying at Rs 1,355 crore on July 3 confirms the reversal thesis. But understanding what drives the next phase requires looking at the four mechanical forces that will determine the pace and scale of FII re-entry: (1) Global EM reallocation: EM fund managers who underweighted India through the June conflict are now facing performance pressure. Each day Nifty rises without them, their relative underperformance compounds. This creates a performance-chasing dynamic that is typically faster and larger than the original de-risking. (2) Hedge unwinding: FIIs are currently hedged long (put buying confirmed by NiftyTrader). As confidence builds, hedges get removed - each put contract removal is effectively incremental buying of the underlying. (3) NSE and Jio IPO allocation: global funds that want exposure to NSE and Jio IPOs (expected August-October) must first build secondary market positions to demonstrate India commitment to their LPs. This pre-IPO allocation buying typically starts 4-6 weeks before the roadshow. (4) July 10-11 IT results: a strong guidance from Infosys and TCS would trigger a fresh wave of global technology EM fund buying in Indian IT. All four mechanics are simultaneously positive. The FII reversal is not a one-day event.

FII July 3: +Rs 1,355 Cr · 4 mechanical forces · NSE+Jio pre-IPO allocation: starting soon

Cipla +4.82%: The Three-Vector Pharma Thesis That Goes Well Beyond Today's Bounce

Cipla's 4.82% surge today reflects three simultaneously positive vectors that most sell-side coverage is not aggregating into a single investment case: (1) US generic market share acceleration: Cipla's US business grew 18.4% in Q4 FY26, driven by market share gains in respiratory generics (Advair, Symbicort) and the first-mover advantage in peptide-based generics. Three FDA approvals in six weeks confirm that Cipla's USFDA compliance improvements of FY25 are now translating to commercial launches. (2) Rupee tailwind: Cipla exports approximately 55% of its revenues in USD. At Rs 94.60 versus Rs 95.61 on June 11, the effective USD-INR rate improvement adds approximately Rs 95-110 crore to Cipla's annual post-tax profit - a 4-6% EPS uplift from currency alone. (3) API cost reduction: Cipla imports approximately 35% of its Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients. At $69.80 Brent, the crude-linked chemical feedstock costs for API manufacturing fall 12-15%, reducing COGS by an estimated Rs 140-160 crore annually. The combination of these three vectors makes Cipla's FY27 EPS estimate approximately Rs 72-75, implying the stock at Rs 1,380+ trades at only 19x FY27 earnings - the lowest forward multiple in 3 years.

Cipla: +4.82% · US generic: +18.4% · 3 FDA approvals · FY27 PE: 19x (3-yr low) · Target: Rs 1,450+

Nifty IT +1.80% as Warsh Turns Dovish: The Pre-Results Window Is Closing Fast

Nifty IT's 1.80% gain today was driven by a specific weekend catalyst: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's interview acknowledging that inflation was 'moving in the right direction' - a meaningful shift from his June hawkish stance that had explicitly warned of a potential December rate hike. For Indian IT specifically, a Fed pivot toward cutting rates has two direct positive effects: (1) US corporate CFOs re-open capital expenditure budgets for discretionary IT projects when the cost of capital falls, reversing the spending freeze that the Accenture guidance specifically cited as a headwind. (2) Indian IT companies' USD earnings are worth more in rupee terms when a Fed cut weakens the dollar. At Rs 94.60 rupee, every 25bps Fed cut typically leads to a Rs 1.5-2 appreciation in the rupee - positive for IT revenue translation. The tactical read: with Infosys results on July 10 (Thursday, four sessions away) and TCS on July 11, today's IT buying is last-minute pre-results positioning. Institutional investors who missed the 12% IT recovery from the June 19 trough are entering now - this is textbook 'buy the rumour' ahead of the 'buy the news' moment if Infosys guides above 7-8% FY27 revenue growth.

Nifty IT: +1.80% · Warsh turns dovish · Infosys: July 10 · TCS: July 11 · Entry window: closing

NSE SEBI Window: 12 Days Left · The Acknowledgement That Could Arrive Any Morning This Week

The 30-day SEBI acknowledgement window for the NSE DRHP closes July 18 - 12 days from today. NSE unlisted has been trading at Rs 2,320-2,360, but with FIIs now confirmed net buyers and the Khamenei-driven crude easing restoring macro confidence, the conditions for the acknowledgement to arrive this week are optimal. SEBI's internal review process: the exchange IPO fast-track process typically produces an acknowledgement within 25-35 days of filing. NSE filed June 18. Day 25 was July 13. Day 35 would be July 23. So the acknowledgement window is now wide open and any morning between today and July 18 could see the formal letter. What to watch: SEBI's BSE exchange filing section (www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/home/HomeAction.do?doListing=yes&sid=1&ssid=6) updates daily. The NSE DRHP acknowledgement will appear there before it hits the news. For Neoma Capital HNI clients: this is the peak urgency window for NSE unlisted positioning. Post-acknowledgement target: Rs 2,450-2,550. Current price: Rs 2,320-2,360. The 12-day window is not a risk - it is an opportunity.

NSE SEBI window: closes July 18 · 12 days left · Ack expected this week · Post-ack: Rs 2,450-2,550

Brent at $69.80 + Fed Dovish Turn: India's August Rate Cut Is Now a Near-Certainty

Two developments over the weekend have made India's August RBI rate cut from a probability to a near-certainty: (1) Brent crude at $69.80 - Khamenei's death has removed the last systematic risk premium from crude, and with Mojtaba's initial posture appearing to be paralysis rather than escalation, the $68-72 Brent range is likely to persist through July. (2) Warsh's 'right direction' language on inflation reduces the risk of a US rate hike in December from 18% to approximately 8-10% on sell-side estimates - removing the global rate environment headwind that the RBI had been monitoring. Combined with June CPI (releasing July 14) expected sub-3.5% and GST June at Rs 1.95 lakh crore confirming strong economic activity, the RBI faces absolutely no reason to delay the August cut. Sell-side consensus is now at 88-90% probability for a 25bps cut at the August 6-8 MPC meeting. The more interesting question: will the RBI cut 25bps or 35bps? A June CPI below 3.2% would give the MPC room to move 35bps - the most market-positive outcome possible and one that would directly re-rate banking, realty and NBFCs by 5-8% in a single session.

Brent: $69.80 · Warsh dovish turn · Aug cut: 88-90% consensus · 35bps possible if CPI sub-3.2%

The insight for today

The insight for today is about the NSE SEBI acknowledgement window and why the next 12 days are the highest-urgency window for pre-IPO positioning in 2026. The SEBI acknowledgement for NSE's DRHP could arrive any morning this week or next. When it does: NSE unlisted will jump from Rs 2,320-2,360 to Rs 2,450-2,550 in 48 hours, based on comparable exchange IPO acknowledgement price responses. That is a 4-8% move in the unlisted price. For investors already positioned, the instruction is simple: do not exit before the acknowledgement. For investors who have not yet positioned: the entry window at Rs 2,320-2,360 is the last pre-acknowledgement pricing available. Post-acknowledgement, pricing will reflect the formal IPO countdown and the full institutional awareness of the timeline. The NSE IPO is the most important unlisted event of 2026, and the next 12 days are its defining moment.