POST MARKET EDITION · 3:30 PM IST

Thursday, JULY 2, 2026

Open 24,076.50 High 24,148.60 Low 23,996.30 Prev 24,005.85

Open 77,219.57 High 77,284.00 Low 76,882.00 Prev 76,922.64

gainers

laggards

Nifty IT's 2.85% Bounce · The Five-Session Panic Has Exhausted Itself

Nifty IT's 2.85% surge today - with Infosys leading at +3.93% to Rs 1,024, HCL Tech +3.58%, TCS +2.73%, and Tech Mahindra +2.33% - is the technical reversal that value investors have been waiting to see. The pattern is now clear: the five-session selloff from June 25 through July 1 pushed Nifty IT down approximately 11.2%, taking Infosys to Rs 985.30 (17.5x FY27 earnings - lowest since March 2023) and TCS to Rs 1,982.60. At those levels, the selling exhausted itself - there are simply not enough incremental sellers to push quality compounders below intrinsic value for sustained periods. Today's 2.85% reversal has recovered approximately one-quarter of the five-session decline. The remaining three-quarters of the recovery will come in three phases: (1) Technical continuation over the next 2-3 sessions as short-covering adds to value buying. (2) Q1 FY27 guidance confirmation from Infosys (July 10) and TCS (July 11) - if either guides

Nifty IT: +2.85% (best since Jan 2026) · 5-session decline: -11.2% · Recovery: 25% complete

Iran-US Doha Talks Conclude · No Breakthrough But 'Positive Progress' Is Enough

Iran and the United States concluded two days of indirect technical talks in Doha on Wednesday - focused specifically on Strait of Hormuz navigation protocols and the mechanism for unfreezing approximately $6 billion of Iranian funds held in South Korea. There was no breakthrough on a lasting peace deal. Iran refused direct talks with top US envoys Kushner and Witkoff, instead communicating through Qatari mediators. But Qatar's foreign ministry statement - describing the talks as producing 'positive progress, building on an earlier Switzerland summit' - was sufficient to push Brent crude down 0.69% to $70.84, its lowest in four months. WTI fell further to $67.75. The market's read is sophisticated: 'no breakthrough' plus 'positive progress' means the framework for a deal is intact even if the final terms are unresolved. The Hormuz focus of the talks is specifically bullish for India - a Hormuz navigation protocol (even without a full peace deal)

Doha talks: 2 days, positive progress, no breakthrough · Brent: $70.84 · Next: 7-10 days

Infosys led the Nifty 50 with a 3.93% surge to Rs 1,024, recovering from its five-session low of Rs 985.30 as institutional value buyers entered at the 17.5x FY27 earnings level that represented a 28% discount to the five-year average forward PE of 24x. HCL Technologies gained 3.58% to Rs 1,071.20 and TCS rose 2.73% to Rs 2,036.70. The IT reversal was the broadest in the current cycle: all five major IT names advanced simultaneously, and the Nifty IT's 2.85% gain was its best single-session gain since January 2026. Nifty Realty rose 1.02% for its third positive session in four, as the rate-cut thesis and easing crude continued to support the sector. Eternal (Zomato) added 1.45%, continuing its momentum from yesterday's 5.82% surge on Blinkit's 88% order volume growth. Force Motors stood out in the broader market, with June sales data confirming +23.5% YoY growth, led by its

NTPC was the session's biggest Nifty 50 loser, falling 1.23% to Rs 353.50 as power sector stocks faced rotation selling - capital exiting defensive utilities to fund IT buying as the sector reversal took hold. Power Grid declined 0.87% and ONGC fell 0.74%. Nifty Oil & Gas and Nifty Energy declined marginally (both under 0.5%) as lower crude prices remain a structural headwind for upstream producers, even as they benefit downstream sectors. Bajaj Finance slipped 0.79% as financial services underwent selective profit-taking after recent outperformance. Nifty PSU Bank declined 0.44% in routine consolidation after the sector's strong June. Bharti Airtel eased 0.74% despite the positive macro backdrop. The session's underperformance was overwhelmingly concentrated in rate-insensitive, crude-price-sensitive sectors - a pattern entirely consistent with the Doha-driven crude decline and the IT

Foreign Institutional Investors

-Rs 1,140.50 Cr

Net sellers · Pace moderating from June 30's -Rs 2,557 Cr · July MTD: -Rs 1,140.50 Cr

Domestic Institutional Investors

+Rs 3,159.24 Cr

Net buyers for 23rd consecutive session · July MTD: +Rs 3,159.24 Cr

Net Institutional Flow

+Rs 2,018.74 Cr

DII absorbs FII selling for 23rd straight day · FII selling pace: moderating - reversal signal

IT's 2.85% Bounce: What History Says About the Full Recovery Timeline From Here

Nifty IT has bounced 2.85% today after a five-session decline of approximately 11.2%. To size the recovery opportunity correctly, investors need to understand the three-phase anatomy of IT sector recoveries from oversold conditions. Phase 1 (Days 1-5 post-low): Technical short-covering and value entry - typically recovers 20-30% of the decline. Today's session likely represents Phase 1 completion. Phase 2 (Days 6-15): Sideways consolidation as the market waits for the fundamental catalyst - in this case, Infosys Q1 FY27 results (July 10) and TCS Q1 FY27 (July 11). This phase sees 10-15% intraday swings but limited net index movement. Phase 3 (Post-results): If guidance confirms 7-8%+ FY27 revenue growth with AI-native revenue disclosure, the full sector re-rating begins, recovering the remaining 70-75% of the five-session decline over 30-45 sessions. The historical precedent from November 2022 IT recovery (post-US rate shock): Nifty IT fell 9.8% over five sessions, then recovered 18.4% over the following 45 sessions. The April 2025 recovery: -8.2% over six sessions, +15.7% recovery over 38 sessions. The current setup (-11.2% over five sessions) implies a recovery of 14-20% over the next 35-50 sessions if the pattern holds.

Phase 1 complete today · Phase 2: sideways to July 10-11 · Phase 3: 14-20% over 35-50 sessions

Doha's Focus on Hormuz Shipping Protocol: Why the Technical Agreement Matters More Than the Peace Deal

The Doha talks' specific focus on Strait of Hormuz navigation protocols - rather than the broader peace deal architecture - is a more important development for India than most commentary has acknowledged. Even without a final peace deal, a Hormuz navigation protocol would achieve three specific outcomes: (1) Lloyd's and London market marine insurers would remove the war risk premium (currently $3-5 million per VLCC voyage through Hormuz). India imports approximately 5 million bpd via Hormuz-adjacent routes; removing the war risk premium saves approximately Rs 80-120 crore per day in insurance costs, independent of the Brent spot price. (2) VLCC tanker availability would normalise - the conflict had diverted 40-50 VLCCs to longer Cape of Good Hope routes, adding 2-3 weeks to each voyage. A protocol restores these tankers to Hormuz routes, reducing India's effective delivery cost. (3) Iranian crude exports restart at 200,000-300,000 bpd - India would be among the first buyers at a 10% discount to Brent, reducing the effective crude cost to approximately $63-64 per barrel on blended basis. The combination of these three mechanisms is worth approximately Rs 35,000-40,000 crore annually to India - even before any final peace deal.

Hormuz protocol: Rs 80-120 Cr/day insurance saving · Iranian crude: 10% discount · Total: Rs 35-40k Cr/yr

Brent at $70.84 and VIX at 13.24: The Two Numbers That Define Market Structure for July

Two numbers define India's market structure entering the second week of July: Brent crude at $70.84 (four-month low) and India VIX at 13.24 (multi-session low). Together they tell a clear story. Brent at $70.84: India's daily crude import saving versus June 11's $94.68 peak is now approximately Rs 1,080 crore per day - the highest saving of the entire post-conflict period. At this level, OMC marketing margins on petrol have expanded to approximately Rs 19-22 per litre, making the July petrol price cut not just economically justified but politically obligatory. VIX at 13.24: the fear gauge's continued decline despite this week's Doha uncertainty, Kospi -6%, and Nikkei -2% confirms a structural truth - India's DII structural bid is sufficiently large that global risk-off episodes produce contained, orderly corrections rather than panic spirals. The combination of low VIX (institutional calm) and sub-$71 Brent (macro tailwind) is historically the setup for a Nifty breakout rather than a consolidation. The 24,500 level - first serious resistance since April - is now firmly in the Q3 FY27 price target range.

Brent: $70.84 (saving Rs 1,080 Cr/day) · VIX: 13.24 · Nifty target: 24,500 in Q3 FY27

PM Modi Meets Japanese PM Takaichi at Hyderabad House: Three Strategic Outcomes to Watch

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's bilateral with Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi at Hyderabad House today - largely overshadowed by the IT reversal and Doha news - carries strategic significance that markets will price over the next 3-6 months. Three specific outcomes to watch: (1) Semiconductor supply chain partnership: Japan's METI has been in advanced discussions with India's Ministry of Electronics on a joint semiconductor fabrication investment at Dholera, Gujarat. A formal announcement from this bilateral would be a significant positive for India's electronics sector and companies like Dixon Technologies, Kaynes Technology and Tata Electronics. (2) Defence co-production: Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi have been in talks with Indian OEMs on submarine and maritime patrol aircraft co-production. An MoU here would benefit Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Bharat Electronics. (3) Financial flows: Japan is India's largest bilateral development finance partner (Rs 14,000+ crore annually via JICA). A new JICA commitment for India's railway and metro infrastructure would benefit Larsen & Toubro, RVNL and IRCON. Watch the joint statement from Hyderabad House - any of these three outcomes would be incrementally positive for specific listed sectors.

Modi-Takaichi bilateral: semiconductor, defence, JICA · Watch joint statement · Dixon, BEL, RVNL

Force Motors June Sales +23.5% YoY: The Defence and UV Story Hiding Behind the Headline

Force Motors' June 2026 monthly sales data - total sales up 23.5% YoY with domestic sales up 26.6% - is a number that deserves more attention than its coverage suggests. Force Motors is not a mass-market passenger vehicle company - it is a specialist manufacturer of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), Utility Vehicles (UV) and, increasingly, defence vehicles (Gurkha, Trax Cruiser variants for the Indian Army). Three reads behind the 23.5%: (1) Force's Utility Vehicle segment (which includes the Gurkha 4x4 and Force One) is seeing sustained demand from the Indian Army and CAPF (Central Armed Police Forces) as defence indigenous procurement programmes ramp up under AtmaNirbhar Bharat. This is recurring, government-backed revenue that is not cyclical. (2) Force's LCV segment is benefiting from the e-commerce and last-mile delivery boom - Blinkit's 88% order volume growth (confirmed yesterday) requires physical delivery vehicles, and Force's 1.5-3 tonne LCV range is the preferred last-mile delivery platform. (3) Force's export business (vans for Daimler Mercedes under contract manufacturing) has strengthened with the trade framework improving European market access. Force Motors' stock represents a micro-cap opportunity in the intersection of defence, LCV and

Force Motors: +23.5% YoY June sales · Defence + LCV + exports · AtmaNirbhar + Blinkit nexus

NSE SEBI Acknowledgement Window: 16 Days Remaining · What Happens If It Arrives This Week

The 30-day window for SEBI to acknowledge the NSE DRHP (filed June 18) closes on July 18 - meaning as of today, there are 16 days remaining. With markets having recovered the 24,000 level on consecutive sessions and the geopolitical backdrop stabilising, the conditions are constructive for NSE to receive its acknowledgement in the current window. What happens when it arrives: (1) NSE unlisted shares, currently at Rs 2,320-2,360, are expected to jump 5-8% immediately on acknowledgement - as was the case with BSE's DRHP acknowledgement in FY17 which pushed BSE unlisted from Rs 850 to Rs 930 in 48 hours. (2) The formal 75-day countdown to the IPO price band begins. At Day 75 from July 18, the price band would be announced around October 1, 2026. (3) SEBI's acknowledgement triggers the mandatory 'Red Herring Prospectus' publication in newspapers - the first public disclosure of NSE's full financials for retail investors. Watch for any SEBI circular referencing the NSE DRHP filing number between now and July 18 - that is the trigger. NSE unlisted is currently at Rs 2,320-2,360; a clean acknowledgement within this week would push it to Rs 2,450-2,500.

SEBI ack window closes July 18 · 16 days remaining · On receipt: NSE unlisted target Rs 2,450-2,500

The insight for today

The insight for today is about what the combination of IT reversal and Doha progress tells us about market positioning heading into the Infosys and TCS results on July 10-11. Both stocks recovered sharply today - Infosys from Rs 985 to Rs 1,024, TCS from Rs 1,982 to Rs 2,037. But both are still 8-10% below their pre-Accenture shock levels of June 18. The market is saying: the panic is over, but the fundamental re-rating is not yet resolved. That resolution happens on July 10-11. If Infosys guides 7-8%+ revenue growth for FY27 with explicit AI-native revenue disclosure, the stock goes back to Rs 1,100-1,150 in 3-4 sessions. If Infosys guides 4-5%, it makes another leg down to Rs 950. There is no ambiguity in the setup - the outcome space is binary and the positioning window is narrow. The right portfolio construction for the next 8 days: own IT selectively (HCL Tech and TCS over Infosys on risk-reward), own Realty (rate-cut thesis intact, not results-dependent), own auto (petrol price cut catalyst approaching), and maintain dry powder for post-results deployment.