POST MARKET EDITION · 3:30 PM IST

Tuesday, JUNE 23, 2026

Open 24,055.30 High 24,142.60 Low 24,040.00 Prev 24,102.90

Open 76,912.68 High 77,185.00 Low 76,882.00 Prev 77,094.07

gainers

laggards

US Grants Iran 60-Day Sanctions Waiver · Brent at $71.50 - 8-Month Low

The United States on Monday granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver, allowing Tehran to sell oil and petrochemical products and receive payment through at least August 21 - the first concrete economic concession under the interim peace deal. US Vice President JD Vance said the Switzerland talks had laid ‘a very good foundation’ for a permanent agreement. Brent crude fell 2.9% to $71.50 today - its lowest since October 2025 and 24.5% below the June 11 peak of $94.68. For India, this is the compounding macro windfall: at $71.50 versus $94.68 on June 11, India’s daily crude import saving has now reached approximately Rs 1,300 crore - a monthly saving of Rs 39,000 crore. The rupee firmed to Rs 92.20, its strongest since October 2025. RBI August rate-cut probability has now crossed 88% on sell-side consensus. The petrol price cut window has opened definitively: at $71.50 Brent and Rs 92.20 rupee, OMC marketing margins on petrol are approximately Rs

Brent: $71.50 (-24.5% from June 11) · Daily India saving: Rs 1,300 Cr · Aug cut: 88%+

Nifty IT Falls for Third Session · Nasdaq’s Overnight Drop Compounds Accenture Rout

The Nifty IT index fell 1.58% today - its third consecutive session of significant decline - as Nasdaq dropped 1.32% overnight Monday and Asian tech stocks bled across the region on Tuesday morning. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 4%, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.9% - all dragged by the same Accenture read-through that hit Indian IT last Friday. Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra were the Nifty 50’s biggest losers for the third consecutive session. The cumulative damage: Nifty IT has now lost approximately 6.8% over three sessions from its June 20 close. The key question is whether this is a panic overshoot (our view: partly yes) or a legitimate structural re-rating (our view: partly also). The distinction matters: Infosys and TCS have the highest Accenture-comparable revenue mix; HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra have lower overlap and have been oversold on a guilt-by-association basis. Watch

Nifty IT: -1.58% today · 3-session loss: -6.8% · Infosys, TCS: highest Accenture overlap

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories was the session’s standout performer, surging 2.56% to Rs 1,324 on strong US prescription data for its generic drug portfolio and improved USFDA compliance signals from its Shreveport, Louisiana facility. Sun Pharma gained 1.4% and Cipla rose 0.8% on the double tailwind of rupee appreciation (lower API import costs) and improving US generic market share. Nifty Pharma’s 1.88% gain was its best session since February 2026. ICICI Bank bucked the banking sector weakness with a 1.2% gain on strong Q1 FY27 retail disbursement data. Trent gained on improving consumer sentiment outlook as lower petrol prices (expected from the July OMC revision) would boost discretionary spending. L&T rose on strong order win momentum - BEL separately announced Rs 1,081 crore of fresh defence electronics orders since May 25, reflecting the ongoing defence

Infosys was the biggest Nifty 50 loser for the third consecutive session - a historic three-session losing streak that has now erased approximately 11% of its market cap since June 18. TCS, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra and Wipro followed. Nifty IT’s 1.58% decline brings its three-session cumulative loss to approximately 6.8%. Hindalco and Tata Steel led Nifty Metal lower (-0.82%) as the sector digested the implications of Hormuz reopening for commodity supply dynamics. Vodafone Idea fell despite a fresh capital infusion announcement, as investors remain sceptical of the company’s ability to service its debt even with new equity. Vedanta fell after a large block deal hit the market. JSW Steel and Tata Motors PV also declined. Private banks were mixed with HDFC Bank and Axis Bank under pressure while ICICI Bank outperformed.

Foreign Institutional Investors

+Rs 1,244.58 Cr

Net buyers · 4th positive in 6 sessions · June MTD: approx -Rs 38,619 Cr

Domestic Institutional Investors

+Rs 2,344.82 Cr

Net buyers for 16th consecutive session · DII June MTD: approx +Rs 71,194 Cr

Net Institutional Flow

+Rs 3,589.40 Cr

Combined flows strongly positive · FII buying despite IT rout: India thesis holds

US 60-Day Iran Waiver: What It Means for India Beyond the Crude Price Headline

The 60-day US sanctions waiver for Iran - allowing Tehran to sell oil through August 21 - is more significant than the $71.50 Brent price suggests. Three layers of impact most investors are missing: (1) The waiver signals that the US is committed to the peace process at an economic cost to domestic US oil producers. This political commitment makes the 60-day window likely to extend rather than reverse - reducing crude risk premium further. (2) India specifically benefits from being one of the first buyers pre-cleared to resume Iranian crude purchases. India-Iran oil imports, which had been zero since 2019 US sanctions, are expected to restart at 200,000-300,000 bpd within 30 days - at a minimum 8-10% discount to Brent. Effective Indian crude cost could fall to $65-66 per barrel on blended basis. (3) The sanctions waiver also covers petrochemicals and LPG - reducing India’s fertiliser input costs and household cooking gas costs. An LPG price cut (Rs 50-100/cylinder) becomes possible for the first time in 18 months if LPG import costs fall in line with crude. The RBI’s August rate cut is now not just probable - a majority of sell-side desks now put probability at 88-90%.

Iran waiver: 60-day oil + petrochem sales · India restart: 200-300k bpd · Brent: $71.50

Dr. Reddy’s Labs +2.56%: The Pharma Story That Goes Well Beyond Friday’s IT Selloff

Dr. Reddy’s 2.56% surge today is not just a beneficiary of IT-to-pharma rotation. Three fundamental drivers that most investors are not tracking: (1) Dr. Reddy’s US generic revenue is growing at 22% in FY27 YTD versus the sector average of 14%, driven by market share gains in semaglutide (Ozempic generic) and glatiramer acetate. The semaglutide opportunity alone - India’s first approved generic GLP-1 launch - could add Rs 800-1,200 crore to FY27 US revenue. (2) The rupee at Rs 92.20 has a direct positive impact on Dr. Reddy’s API sourcing costs: 68% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients are imported in USD. A 2.73-rupee appreciation since June 11 translates to approximately Rs 340 crore of annualised COGS savings. (3) USFDA’s recent fast-track approval for Dr. Reddy’s Shreveport biologics facility creates a biosimilar manufacturing moat that no other Indian pharma company currently has. The combination of US generic market share gains, rupee tailwind, and biosimilar optionality makes Dr. Reddy’s the strongest risk-adjusted pharma play in the current macro environment.

Dr Reddy’s: +2.56% · Semaglutide generic: Rs 800-1,200 Cr FY27 upside · Rupee saves Rs 340 Cr

US-India Trade Talks Begin in New Delhi Today · The Tariff Deal That Could Re-Rate Four Sectors

The US trade negotiating team arrived in New Delhi today for the June 23-24 bilateral tariff framework talks - potentially the most consequential trade negotiation India has had since the 2005 FTA discussions. The stakes: India currently faces 26% US tariffs under the 2025 reciprocal tariff regime. A framework agreement at 10-15% would simultaneously re-rate four sectors: (1) IT services - if the framework includes digital services tax relief, it reduces the effective cost of Indian IT delivery by 4-6 percentage points, materially improving margins at a time when AI cannibalisation is compressing revenue growth. (2) Pharmaceuticals - the US market access framework for Indian generics has been a source of ongoing friction; a streamlined FDA-equivalent mutual recognition path would accelerate US generic launches. (3) Auto components - India’s auto component exports to the US ($4.2 billion in FY26) would expand significantly at lower tariffs. (4) Textiles and apparel - India’s share of the $100 billion US textile import market is only 6%; tariff relief could double this over 5 years. Watch for any joint statement following the June 24 conclusion - even a framework-in-principle would be a significant market catalyst across all four sectors.

US-India trade talks: June 23-24 New Delhi · Current tariff: 26% · Target: 10-15% framework

Waterways Leisure IPO Opens Today · Subscription Data Is the Primary Market Barometer

Waterways Leisure’s IPO opened for subscription today - the first significant primary market test since the NSE and Jio DRHP filings created a dual mega-IPO pipeline. The subscription data across three investor categories (QIB, NII, Retail) will be the clearest signal yet of whether primary market appetite has returned after June’s volatility. Three things to watch specifically: (1) QIB subscription on Day 1 - institutional investors booking allocations early signals conviction. A QIB subscription above 2x on Day 1 is the bullish signal. (2) Grey market premium vs issue price - if GMP holds or expands through the subscription period, it confirms retail demand. (3) NII (Non-Institutional Investor) category - this is where HNI demand manifests. A strong NII subscription (5x+) would signal that HNI appetite has returned despite IT sector concerns. Waterways Leisure operates in India’s fast-growing river tourism and water transport sector - a niche that benefits directly from lower fuel costs (Brent at $71.50 dramatically reduces vessel operating costs) and India’s expanding middle-class leisure travel demand. The IPO timing - when macro tailwinds are the strongest in years - is well-chosen.

Waterways Leisure IPO: opened June 23 · Watch: QIB Day 1, GMP, NII subscription · Fuel cost tailwind

BEL Rs 1,081 Cr Orders and the Defence Sector’s Quiet Compounding Story

Bharat Electronics Limited announced Rs 1,081 crore of fresh defence electronics orders since May 25 - the latest addition to an order book that has grown at 28% CAGR over the past three years. BEL’s order pipeline reflects a structural shift in India’s defence procurement: the government is now purchasing advanced electronics systems (electronic warfare, radar, communication systems) domestically at a pace that mirrors what it was importing five years ago. Three hidden value drivers in the defence electronics sector: (1) BEL’s revenue-to-order-book ratio is at 0.28x - meaning it has 3.5 years of revenue already in hand. This visibility is unmatched in any other Indian capital goods sector. (2) The BrahMos Vietnam deal (imminent) would be a Rs 15,000+ crore single-order that would not be distributed across competitors - BEL is the primary electronics systems supplier for BrahMos. (3) India’s Rs 3 lakh crore FY30 defence production target requires a parallel Rs 1 lakh crore build-out in defence electronics - BEL is the only listed Indian company with the scale to absorb this.

BEL orders: Rs 1,081 Cr since May 25 · Order book: 3.5x revenue visibility · BrahMos: watch

Brent at $71.50 Makes Petrol Price Cut Inevitable · The July Catalyst Nobody Is Pricing

Brent crude at $71.50 versus $94.68 on June 11 has created OMC marketing margins of approximately Rs 18-20 per litre on petrol - the highest since 2020. At these margins, the government faces significant fiscal and political pressure to pass through the benefit. Historical pattern: every time OMC marketing margins have exceeded Rs 12-15/litre for more than 3 consecutive weeks, the government has reduced retail fuel prices within 4-6 weeks. The petroleum ministry meeting for price revision is expected in the first week of July. A Rs 8-10/litre petrol price cut would: (1) Reduce headline CPI by 25-35 bps directly. (2) Improve consumer discretionary spending in H1 FY27 by an estimated Rs 8,000-10,000 crore annually (the fuel savings flowing back to household budgets). (3) Boost two-wheeler and entry-level car demand in Q2 FY27 - Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti and Tata Motors would be direct beneficiaries. (4) Create a powerful political signal ahead of key state elections. The market has not yet priced this catalyst - auto stocks and consumer discretionary names offer an asymmetric entry ahead of the July petroleum ministry meeting.

OMC margin: Rs 18-20/litre · Petrol cut: Rs 8-10/litre expected July · CPI impact: -25-35 bps

The insight for today

The insight for today is about the petrol price cut that the market has not yet priced. Brent at $71.50, OMC margins at Rs 18-20/litre, and a petroleum ministry meeting expected in July Week 1: a Rs 8-10/litre petrol price cut is not a possibility - it is an inevitability at current crude levels. The market has focused on IT’s AI disruption narrative and missed that a petrol price cut would: reduce CPI by 25-35 bps directly, boost consumer discretionary spending by Rs 8,000-10,000 crore annually, and send two-wheeler and entry-level car demand sharply higher in Q2 FY27. The asymmetric trade: buy Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti and consumer discretionary names ahead of the July announcement - not after it. The IT selloff has created a crowded trade in defensives (pharma, FMCG) that makes auto stocks a relatively uncrowded entry at current levels.